Happy Stephen Foster Day!

The G1 Stephen Foster is always a bright spot on the calendar and this year is as bright as it gets. The field is a bit short with just 6 horses, but this is a case of quality over quantity. 5 of the 6 are Grade 1 winners and the other is a record-setting Grade 2 winner. Fun fact, This race is a showdown between the 2011 Stephen Foster winner – Pool Play, and 2012 winner Ron the Greek.

The Field

Golden Ticket
The highlight of his career was the dead-heat win in the Travers with Alpha. The biggest pluses on his side are his consistency and love for distances – kind of a surprise given his sire is Speightstown. Golden Ticket has had an ok year so far; he won an allowance race with ease, then was a solid 3rd in the G3 Mineshaft. After a tired 4th in the G3 Skip Away, he got a class break and won another allowance race. Class is definitely Goldie’s biggest hurdle here. He’s hit the board in graded races, but hasn’t been able to win against top level horses.
When it boils down to it, I just don’t think he has the class for a field this deep. 

Fort Larned
Big Ugly was one of the best of the division last year, capping a good season with wins in the G1 Whitney and Breeders’ Cup Classic. 2013 has not been a good year for him. The first race of the season saw him face plant out of the gate, drop his jockey and being declared a non-starter. He went ahead and ran a beautiful race on his own, hugging the rail and drawing off to a huge win – but big wins don’t count without a rider. He was able to officially finish his second race, but it was the worst effort of his career. He was a very tired looking horse in the Oaklawn stretch, wobbling as half the field went by. Fort Larned is a very classy, very tough horse. He’s been working well for this race and should be back to his old self, and a run back to his old self puts him at the head of the class.
Fort Larned hasn’t been in a good place this year. This could be the race he turns it around, but I hate to put money on a favorite who’s on a negative streak.

Ron the Greek
Going by the numbers, Ron is the most consistently brilliant horse in this field. He’s a deep closer who does his best work chasing a hot pace over a long distance. His big wins include last year’s running of this race and the Big Cap. He hasn’t lost a step this year; he crushed the Sunshine Millions Classic field, was a respectable 4th in the Santa Anita Handicap, and a close 3rd around the bullring in the Charlestown Classic. Ron always runs his race, but  he’ll need Take Charge Indy, Fort Larned, and Golden Ticket to hustle up front for his best chance to win.
He has class in spades, but I doubt he’ll get the right pace set up here. He’ll probably still run big, and could easily hit the board.

Take Charge Indy
One of my very favorite horses from last years Triple Crown trail, Indy has made a fantastic comeback from surgery (chip removal) and looks even better as a 4-year-old. Since making his comeback in the G2 Fayette, he’s hit the board in all 5 starts in graded stakes while facing very tough competition. He got 2013 started with a strong second in the G3 Skip Away, then ran a hole in the wind winning the G2 Alysheba less than half a second off Successful Dan’s track record. Getting Rosie on board for his last two has definitely been a plus for Indy.
Indy looks like he’s really coming into his own at 4, and should be able to get a pretty comfortable position here.

Pool Play
The old man of the field at 8-years-old, Pool Play has run on just about everything and everywhere – racing mostly on synthetics with a scattering of dirt and turf appearances. His 2 biggest wins were on the dirt – he won last year’s G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup and the 2011 Stephen Foster. He’s not particularly consistent, but he likes Churchill Downs and has a habit of winning with long odds (and losing with short odds)
Pool Play is such a sneaky horse, but his last couple of races were particularly lackluster.

Successful Dan
occasionally brilliant, and always fabulous is a good way to describe Wise Dan’s older half-brother. Successful Dan has been plagued with soundness issues and injury throughout his career, managing just 12 starts over 5 years of racing. He’s done a lot with those 12 starts, and holds the track record at Churchill Downs for 1 1/16 miles. He was injured after running second to Fort Larned in the G3 Cornhusker last year, and was out a long while. His first race back was an easy win in the G3 Ben Ali at the end of April.
Dan is a very special horse; I think he has a few more big races left in him and he really loves this track.

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It’s not hard to make a case for any of these boys, they’ve all won at least one race over the track, they all like the distance, and they’ve all run big on big racing days.

My Picks: Take Charge Indy – Successful Dan – Ron the Greek

The 2013 Trio

Orb

Oxbow

Palace Malice

Palace Malice’s Carnations

Palace Malice’s Carnations

Another Season Finished!

As all good things do, the Triple Crown season of 2013 is officially over. We didn’t get any repeat winners, but 2013 was not without its cool points.

* Rosie Napravnik is well on her way to being on of the greatest female jockeys in history and we got to see her punch out 3 more records. She finished better than any other female rider in history in both the Kentucky Derby (5th) and Preakness (3rd) aboard Mylute. On top of 3 historic finishes, she became the first woman to ride in all three Triple Crown races in the same year.

* Speaking of cool jockey moments - ‘comeback kid’ Gary Stevens became the oldest jockey to win a Preakness at 50, and 2013 saw Joel Rosario win the Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby in the same year.

* We also can’t forget that D. Wayne Lukas got his first classic win this millennium thanks to Oxbow.

* 2013 was a big year for classic racing owners. In the Kentucky Derby, Orb brought home the roses to the Phipps/Jenney families for the first time in their long, intertwined history. In the Preakness, Oxbow became the first classic winner for Calumet in over 40 years. Even the Belmont winner carried some classy silks; Palace Malice won for Dogwood Stables – a racing partnership going back to 1969.

* New sires on the block! Sophomore stallions really shined throughout this years Triple Crown prep series and races.

• Midnight Lute – Mylute, Shakin it Up, Govenor Charlie, Midnight Lucky
• Curlin – Palace Malice
• Into Mischief – Vyjack, Goldencents
• War Pass – Revolutionary, Java’s War
• Majestic Warrior – Princess of Sylmar
• Giant Finis – West Hills Giant, Giant Finish

Sure there was no Triple Crown winner or near misses, but I’d say it’s been a pretty decent year with its own share of historic moments.

Palace Malice in the Belmont!

What a race for the tough son of Curlin!

Palace Malice

Belmont Babble

The Belmont is always an interesting race to handicap. The horses are a mix of warriors at the end of a long series, Preakness skippers, and fresh faces – all of whom trying out a new distance they won’t likely ever test again. Years like this, where the crown is already locked away for next year’s dreams, it’s a great race to pick an underdog.

The main questions I think about for the Belmont is: Who can go the distance? Who has the breeding and the build for it? Who has the class to carry them all the way to the end? Speed is of course important too, but it takes a backseat here. We also can’t forget the track is wet but hopefully going to dry out some by the later races.

Frac Daddy - His sire is a Florida Derby winner and broodmare sire is the late, great handicapper Skip Away, so distance should be his friend. He’s run a couple of good races against good horses but has been remarkably inconsistent. Sometimes, like in the Derby, he just doesn’t run a lick.

Freedom Child – He’s something of an odd one. He faced some big horses as a 2-year-old and didn’t break his maiden until stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. When his connections tried to get him into the Derby via the Wood Memorial, a freak accident at the start made him a non-contender. He turned around and crushed the Peter Pan field over a sloppy track. He has class and he has stamina, and if you toss the Wood Memorial he’s been improving with every race.

Overanalyze – The Arkansas Derby winner has faced some good horses, running nothing but graded stakes since breaking his maiden at first asking. He’s been a consistently good runner, but not a brilliant one. He’s well-bred, but his sire is better known for 1 1/16 type routing than Belmont type routing until Union Rags came around. His dam is classy but a little speed leaning.

Giant Finish – He surprised a lot of people by finishing in the top half of the Derby field. His pedigree is interesting; his sire Frost Giant is a young sire on a hot streak and follow his damline back a few generations and it produced a Preakness winner in Screen King. He has slowly but surely improved, and doesn’t seem hampered by stretching out in distance. He’d probably do best if close to the lead early.

Orb – He had everyone feeling Triple Crown vibes. The Kentucky Derby was his 5th win in a streak including the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Each of his wins looked better than the last. But alas, the Preakness was his downfall. He has every right to relish 1 1/2 miles and is certainly classy enough to get the job done.

Incognito – This colt is bred pretty amazingly – sired by A. P. Indy himself and out of CCA Oaks winner Octave. He didn’t fire in time the Peter Pan, but the track was a soup bowl and he learned something from the race. He is a very intriguing longshot on pedigree alone. That he’s adorable and improving only help.

Oxbow – He is classy as they come, tough, and coming off a Preakness win. One thing about Oxbow, is that he does his absolute best when allowed to be a speed horse. Every attempt they’ve made to wrangle him back has been something of a failure. He’s bred to handle distance, and I fully believe he could win it if allowed to run his race.

Midnight Taboo – He’s a lightly raced new-shooter with a win and 2 seconds to his name. He’s very well-bred – his dam, Hot Red is a half-sister to Belmont winner Point Given and sired by Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. His sire Langfuhr was a super classy miler who got some nice routers. Hard to say much else about the colt other than 3 races isn’t likely to get him fit for 1 1/2 miles.

Revolutionary – It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run big here. He’s actually run well in all of his races despite being a bad luck magnet. His blood his as classy and blue as it gets. He’s got proven class, guts, and stamina.

Will Take Charge – He’s a big, powerful horse. He’s not agile and needs things to go his way in a race. But when they do go his way, he’s a serious threat – especially over a distance. I like that he’s getting Court back in the saddle, since he didn’t run at all for Smith in the Preakness. I expect he might be better as an older horse than he is now.

Vyjack – It’s pretty surprising to see this formerly undefeated gelding showing up for the Belmont. He was unstoppable up to 1 1/16 miles, and capable at 1 1/8 – but further seems to be pushing it. On the other hand, he’s finally looking truly healthy after fighting a lung infection, and might just surprise everyone.

Palace Malice – He definitely has the pedigree for the Belmont, and will be dead fit after that ridiculous Derby. He’s been a solid, classy contender while facing some top-level horses and being given the bird by the luck fairy.

Unlimited Budget – Girl Power! She had some issues in a very, very tough Kentucky Oaks – but was previously undefeated up to 1 1/8 miles in a very strong division. She gets Rosie back in the saddle – the pair previously won the Rachel Alexandra together – which is always a plus. Budgie has the breeding and the class and the size to take on the boys.

Golden Soul – Last but far from least is the Derby runner-up. He’s been a big longshot each of his last few races, but that might change now. He’s a big, beautiful chestnut that looks like he’d run all day.

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The horses most catching my attention are Orb, Oxbow, Freedom Child, Golden Soul, Incognito, Palace Malice, Will Take Charge, Giant Finish & Unlimited Budget. Orb, Oxbow, and Freedom Child are going to be bet pretty heavy off of their marquee wins and I’d like to go for a little more value than their going to give.

My picks are: Golden Soul – Palace Malice – Incognito and Unlimited Budget

 

Finally!

Between last weekend and Memorial Day, two horses I’ve liked and followed for some time got their names in the headlines! Not only did the gallant lady Tiz Miz Sue finally get a Grade 1 win, Clubhouse Ride finally got his first graded stakes win!

 

Clubhouse Ride

Clubhouse Ride was one of my early picks for the 2011 Derby thanks to some nice placings in the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, G1 CashCall Futurity, and G3 Sham. Sadly a hairline fracture woke him up from the Derby dream and kept him away from the races for just over a year. But the tough red horse made a comeback in February of 2012. It took him some time to find his feet at the track at 4, but he found the winners circle for the first time since the 2010 Barretts Juvenile Stakes in an Allowance in October of 2012. He finished the year with a second place finish in the G3 Daytona Stakes – just a head behind Comma to the Top.

And thus started a very impressive streak. His 2013 season got a January kickoff with a second in allowance company before he went after the big boys in graded stakes. First up was the G2 San Antonio, where Game On Dude got an easy lead over the short field and Clubhouse was left eating 13 lengths of dust in second; 3 lengths best of the rest after a bobbled start. The Big Cap was his next start and his next trouncing by Game On Dude – by 7 this time. Again Clubhouse Ride got his nose to the wire in front of the rest, logging a G1 placing. The Charlestown Classic was next on the list, this time the red horse finished just half a length behind a victorious Dude, and again got his nose on the wire second. The Dude may have been beating him, but strong horses like Ron the Greek were out-gunned by the Ride.

After logging 11 races in 9 months, Clubhouse got a month to breath before going to post in the G2 Californian last weekend. With no big bay rival in sight, Clubhouse Ride finally got his win. Betting favorite Liaison was second best on Clubhouse Ride’s day.

Clubhouse Ride is a special horse, maybe not brilliant but special. His wins are few, but his placings are many and his people aren’t shy about going to the big dances. His schedule is reminiscent of the horses of yesteryear – the sort that runs often and never ducks.

 

Monday Memorial Madness

Memorial Day is full to the brim with quality racing! The Triple Crown trail is nearing its weary end, so it’s a good time to focus on the older stars and would-be stars.

G1 Gamely Stakes | 1 1/8 miles on turf at Hollywood Park

1 – Miss Ellany (IRE)
She was a solid, though not brilliant runner in Europe last year – on the board in all but her last start in handicap races. She’s had two American starts thus far and didn’t fare well in either. In her favor she did improve on paper in her last start, an optional claimer. Miss Ellany is such an awesome name, but she needs to really step it up to contend with this crew.

2 – Tiz Flirtatious 
She’s a very classy filly and has yet to finish off the board in 9 tries. She’s coming off a short layoff and is riding a 2 race win streak -including the G2 Santa Ana. Her previous race over the Hollywood turf course was a solid 2nd in the G1 Matriarch.  Tiz Flirtatious is definitely one to watch out for.

3 – Private Affair (PER) 
Gr1 placed and a Gr3 winner in her native country – she hasn’t been so lucky in the SoCal circuit. Her first American race was her best American Finish; she won a 1 3/8 mile handicap last August and earned a decent number. She’s run 5 more times since – 3 graded stakes, an ungraded stakes, and an allowance – with her only success landing in the allowance.

4 – My Gi Gi
Gi Gi hasn’t raced since last September and might be a bit rusty. Her 2012 form was a big improvement on her 2011 season; she won the G2 Honeymoon and placed in the G1 American Oaks & G3 Senorita. She’s been training well since April including some long breezes so should be fit despite the lay-off. If she steps forward as a 4-year-old she could be a contender.

5 – Halo Dolly
A very experienced mare and a winner of just over half of her 29 races. Most of her races were at smaller, less competitive tracks but she’s put up some nice wins at Hollywood & Del Mar. She was most recently a winner of the G3 Wilshire Handicap. It’s easy to like tough, honest horses like Halo Dolly.

6 – Lady of Shamrock
She’s come back from a fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf with a vengeance – running 2nd off a long layoff in the G2 Santa Ana & winning the G2 Santa Barbara. Shamrock is a tough filly with consistently fast numbers and strong finishes. If you cross off her fifth in the Breeders’ Cup, she hasn’t been off the board since breaking her maiden.

7 – Marketing Mix
I love Marketing Mix, she’s one of my favorite classy turf mares. She’s very, very tough when on her game and very rarely is she ever off her game. The Mix hasn’t run since November, but a lengthy layoff didn’t stop her winning her first race last year. Her speed figures are a head above the rest of the field.

My Picks: Marketing Mix – Lady of Shamrock – My Gi Gi

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G1 Acorn Stakes | 1 mile on dirt at Belmont Park

1 – Kauai Katie
This filly is one freaky monster and undefeated up to 7 furlongs. She didn’t disgrace herself stretching out to 1 1/16 miles last year so I doubt the extra furlong will bother her. She has a habit of winning for fun.

2 – Momentary Magic
She’s a very lightly raced filly with just 3 starts stretching back to her debut in October. She’s definitely showed some sprinting speed in her last start and might try and keep up with Kauai Katie company on the lead.

3 – Let Me Entertain U
She did pretty well as a juvenile going Lasix free, but hasn’t had much luck against the big girls as a sophomore. She was a distant third to eventual Kentucky Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar in the Busher Stakes and fought out a win in the Beru Stakes against lesser foes. Her last start may have been a little far for her at 1 1/8 miles; getting back to a mile may help her.

4 – Cue the Moon
This girl has been going head to head with the best in her 3 race career. She beat eventual G1 winner Emolient in her debut, missed winning the G3 tempted by just a neck behind My Happy Face, than ran a very distant third behind Dreaming of Julia and Live Lively in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.

5 – Midnight Lucky
Another lightly raced filly, Midnight Lucky was a monster in her first 2 races – but the Kentucky Oaks was a little too much too soon and she faded to fifth. She has a ton of speed and class in spades.

6 – Close Hatches
She was another of the previously undefeated Kentucky Oaks starters. Close Hatches had never put a hoof wrong before the Oaks and was improving with each start. I really like her, but like her better going longer than shorter.

My Picks: Kauai Katie – Midnight Lucky – Cue the Moon

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G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap | 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Belmont Park

1 – Joyful Victory
The gorgeous grey has been kind of fabulous over the last few years of racing and looks better with age. Her last 2 races were simply scintillating. Joyful Victory had a couple of months off, but seems to do well with a light schedule so I wouldn’t hold that against her. If she runs back to her G1 Matriarch score the rest of the field is running for second.

2 – Tiz Miz Sue
She is one of my absolute favorite horses running. Tiz Miz Sue is one of those tough old girls that always runs her race and puts up consistently good numbers time and time again. I would love to see her finally get a G1 win after seeing her place in them so many times.

3 – Authenticity
She took a two big jumps forward in her last couple of starts and beat some nice horses winning the G2 La Troienne earlier this month. I doubt Pletcher would wheel her back this quickly if he didn’t think she’d be dangerous. I expect her to be dangerous.

4 – Centering
This is a pretty big step up in class for this A. P. Indy Daughter. Her only previous try at a graded stakes was one of her worst efforts, but also her only race on grass. She’s been a decent Allowance level horse up to the point. The biggest knocks against her are a lack of wins against classy competition and a 2 month layoff.

5 – Disposablepleasure
I do like this daughter of Giacomo. She doesn’t have a lot of wins under her belt, but frequents the board in graded company. She’s on a 2 race win streak including a 3 length score in the G3 Sixty Sails Handicap.

 6 – Believe You Can
The 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner is a formidable runner. She hasn’t won at a graded level since the Oaks, but hasn’t been off the board since February of her sophomore year either. She started the year with 2 romping wins in against listed company and was then a good third in the G2 La Troienne after a bothered start.

My Picks: Tiz Miz Sue – Joyful Victory – Believe You Can

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G1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap | 1 mile on dirt at Belmont Park

1 – Cross Traffic
He has awfully short odds for a 4-year-old colt in a G1 race with just 3 starts under his belt. Each of those 3 races have been pretty flawless, including just missing the G3 Westchester after doing all the running of a mile in 1:32.9. This boy is obviously talented, but I worry about the lack of seasoning in such a strong field.

2 – Discreet Dancer
He hasn’t missed the board in 6 races from 5 1/2f up to a 1 1/16 miles. Dancer is very fast and has been moving steadily forward with each race. A flat mile is definitely a distance he enjoys.

3 – Mark Valeski
This colt wasn’t rushed to the Derby last year even though he’d have easily made the field after good finishes in the big Louisiana preps. He’s been nothing but classy and never worse than 2nd since breaking his maiden. A flat mile might be a little on the short side for him – his best races have been at 1 1/8 miles. I suspect Jones will have him sharp for this.

4 – Fort Loudon
Loudon is an experienced horse with 23 races under his belt at just 4 years old. A quick colt, he’s been known to throw a big race now and again. He ran a big 4th in the Carter last out, and won the G3 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship earlier this year.

5 – Swagger Jack
It’s kind of surprising that a horse coming off such a big G1 win has such long morning line odds. Swagger Jack out gunned Discreet Dancer in the Carter Handicap and ran a decent second after a bumpy start in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap at a mile earlier this year. At 5 years old, he looks like he’s only just growing into his own.

6 – Flat Out
It’s a little odd to see a 2 time G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner contesting a one mile event,  but here he is. Flat Out isn’t exactly consistent, but he love New York and is coming off a win over speedy Cross Traffic at a flat mile. He is a very classy horse.

7 – Sahara Sky
He’s a late closing sprinter and hasn’t had much luck beyond 7 furlongs. In his favor, he’s had success at 7 furlongs, and his tries at a mile have all been on turf or all weather rather than dirt. He handled a big move up in class with ease in his last few races.

8 – Handsome Mike
He’s been a big all over the place in his career. He’s sprinted; run long; run on turf, synthetics, and dirt. His best races so far were a recent 7f contest over polytrack and a 1 1/8 mile run over dirt last year. I like his colt, but he’s very inconsistent – you never know which Mike will show up to the gate.

9 – Fed Biz
I remember him being a major buzz horse after his big optional claimer win last February, and again when he won his comeback in August. He didn’t really match the hype, and floundered in at the Breeders’ Cup and the G1 Malibu when trying to change tactics from speed horse to closer. A swap back to using his early speed and he’s been consistently on the board, including a G2 win back in January.

 

My Picks: Mark Valeski – Swagger Jack – Flat Out

Oxbow’s Black-Eyed Susans

 

Oxbow’s Black-Eyed Susans

Preakness Reflections

Yet another season goes by with no hope of a Crown winner. It’s disappointing but at least it’s a disappointment we’ve grown used to over the years. Rather than lamenting, let’s look at the positives.

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History!
Orb had a lot of history riding his back, but he wasn’t the only horse representing racing’s old guard. Oxbow carried the name of Calumet to it’s first Classic victory in about 40 years. Oxbow’s win also brings his Hall of Fame trainer and jockey back to the Preakness winner’s circle for the first time this millenium.

Rosie & Lute
Mylute ran a heck of a race to come from last to third under Rosie Napravnik. Mylute’s valiant showing stamped Midnight Lute as a true sire of classic horses and a worthy successor to Real Quiet. In the process Rosie became the best finishing female jockey to ever ride in the Preakness. The previous best finish by a lady jockey was a 7th by Adrea Seefeldt while riding Looking in 1994.

A Lucky Day
Itsmyluckyday finally turned around his downward spiral and got back to running big. The brilliant son of ill-fated Lawyer Ron looks ready to make a big impact later in the year.

Safe and Sound
By all reports the runners of the 2013 Preakness exited the race safe and sound. Frankly, that’s the best kind of finish there is.